World Bank says Nigeria grew 4.2% in first half of 2026

Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025, according to the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update released on 8 October. The report says growth was led mainly by services, with a stronger contribution from agriculture.

The report, titled “Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Shaped State Priorities”, focuses on what state governments did with increased public revenues. The Bank says higher oil prices strengthened export earnings and external balances, while the global shock temporarily interrupted the decline in inflation.

State budgets are the report’s main focus

The World Bank examined state spending as transfers and revenues increased. Its central question is how states can turn additional resources into better services and infrastructure through more effective and accountable public expenditure. That shifts attention from revenue totals to budget choices and implementation.

The Bank also reports that the current account surplus reached US$12 billion, or 7.1 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, up from US$8.6 billion, or 6.7 per cent, a year earlier. The report links the change partly to stronger oil export earnings.

Growth does not settle the distribution question

The Bank says the poverty rate stabilised for the first time since 2019 and projects average growth of at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028. Those are report findings and projections, not a claim that living standards have already broadly improved. The update argues that sustaining reforms and improving the quality of public spending remain important to converting higher revenues into tangible outcomes.

For businesses that depend on public infrastructure and services, the report makes state-level spending and execution a concrete part of the operating environment to watch.